As far as predicting this already very active hurricane season, they might have gotten the forecast wrong. The Colorado State team also noted that the forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season – not an exact measure. To date, the season is … Andrew Farnsworth The Cornell Lab Sep 03, 2020. Isaias brought disruptive and dangerous impacts to the region into Wednesday. We ain't seen nothing yet: The ravages of Hurricanes Hanna and Isaias are just a prelude to the main act to come, top forecasters said Wednesday, with 10 more hurricanes likely to follow. Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. This bird has been observed to be a single-brood species. "By comparison, 2019’s hurricane activity … Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal, and warmer water means more fuel for storms, Klotzbach said. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release an updated seasonal hurricane forecast on Thursday. Another reason for the extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecast is the result of a very active West African monsoon, Klotzbach said. In 1993, when he started this project, Heckscher said there were a lot more veery. In other words, they raise only one clutch of eggs to chicks in any given season. "More robust easterly waves and more conducive upper-level winds for hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic are typically associated with an active monsoon." La Niñas often increase hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. That includes the nine named storms that have already formed: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its sustained winds reach 74 mph. Currently … 7 dead, millions without power after Isaias ravages East Coast. That's an increase from the early July seasonal forecast, which predicted 20 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is racking up storms at breakneck speed. Hurricane season off to a historically fast start: What does that mean for the rest of the year? Drenching rain from Isaias reached the Northeast. Turns out the birds are right 80% of the time. What does that mean for the rest of the year? An average season has 12 tropical storms, six of which are hurricanes. Experts predict active 2020 hurricane season 07:20. The reasons? In fact, conditions are very "La Niña-like" in the Pacific Ocean, Klotzbach said. “It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season,” said Michael Bell, an associate professor in the CSU department of atmospheric science. The ACE was also used in this study, which analyzed the breeding and pre-migration behaviors of the veery (Catharus fuscescens), a type of thrush that nests in the state of Delaware before migrating all the way to the Amazonian basin for the winter. Cornell Lab of Ornithology currently produces these maps. Finally, as if we needed another reason, there's no sign of an El Niño, which tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. Forecast and Analysis. "By comparison, 2019’s hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season. More bad news: Five of the hurricanes are forecast to reach major hurricane strength – Category 3, 4 or 5 – with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. In all, Klotzbach and his Colorado State University forecast team predicts 24 named storms in 2020. But where do these names come from? Last year's was about 120%. The veery population is declining, though, a pattern that been observed for long-distance migratory songbirds. Case in point, Heckscher reported in early July that his veery data predicted an above average hurricane season for 2018, with 3 to 5 major hurricanes and an ACE severity index between 70 and 150. Katrina, Maria, Harvey and Sandy are all infamous names belonging to some of the worst hurricanes in history. The team also said there's a 74% chance a major hurricane will hit somewhere along the U.S. coastline this year. ", Isaias' wrath: 7 dead, millions without power after Isaias ravages East Coast. "We have increased our forecast and now call for an extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season," meteorologist Phil Klotzbach said. Twelve hurricanes is the most the team has ever predicted in its August forecast. Also, shearing winds in the Atlantic are very weak, researchers said, which aids in hurricane development and intensification. Migration Alert: Major Flight for 3-4 September 2020 . According to Heckscher, “meteorologists at that time predicted a below average hurricane season this year, with most predictions in the 0 – 2 major hurricanes range and ACE <70”. "The team predicts that 2020 hurricane activity will be about 190% of the average season," according to the new forecast. Easterly waves are the small weather disturbances that eject off Africa, which can develop into hurricanes. "The team predicts that 2020 hurricane activity will be about 190% of the average season," according to the new forecast. The BirdCast model is predicting high intensity migration for the continental US for the night of 3-4 September 2020. The migration traffic rate indicates the number of birds per hour that fly across a one kilometer line transect on the earth’s surface oriented perpendicular to the direction of movement of the birds. And, as always, the researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions. The Colorado State University forecast team predicts a total of 24 named storms in 2020. Of those, researchers expect 12 to become hurricanes (including the two that have already formed, Hanna and Isaias). Support for this research came from NASA, Edward W. Rose Postdoctoral Fellowship, and Amazon Web Services. The forecasters say this year's hurricane season will be about 190% of the average season.